Colombia Coffee Outlook 2025: Production, Trade, and Prices
Colombia’s coffee production is forecast at 13.8 million 60-kilogram bags of arabica for 2025/26, down 7% from the record 14.8 million bags in 2024/25 but still well above the 12.76 million produced in 2023/24, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.
Production and Modernization
The recent surge to three-decade highs came from aggressive pruning, favorable weather, and a weak La Niña. Now plantations show fatigue with prolonged rains affecting flowering. Colombia’s coffee sector continues modernizing, with 87% of crops using rust-resistant varieties and a new Castillo 2.0 cultivar introduced in late 2024 for better disease resistance.
Trade Dynamics
Exports are projected at 12.5 million bags, with the U.S. remaining the largest buyer at nearly 40% of shipments. U.S. purchases reached 5.3 million bags in 2024/25 after five years of decline. A 10% U.S. tariff in April 2025 briefly raised costs, but Colombia gained advantage when 50% tariffs hit Brazilian coffee from August-November. Other key markets include the EU, Canada, Japan, and China.
Economic Picture
Farmgate prices hit record highs of $756 per 125-kg bag in February 2025—up 70% from January 2024—driven by strong global markets and peso weakness. However, input and labor costs remain elevated. With over 500,000 families depending on coffee and 93% of production exported, Colombia maintains its crucial role as a premier arabica supplier.
Read also :
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